Our thinking is based on judgement but often there is a need to ‘design’ a way forward.
The US could declare a date for the withdrawal of troops from Iraq. From the moment of that declaration every death from insurgency would delay the departure date by three days. This would make insurgency counter-productive – and perceived as such.
A second design idea would be to announce a date for withdrawal. Every month without an insurgency event would advance the withdrawal by one month. Every month with an insurgency event would delay withdrawal by one month.
In both cases the point of the designs would be to make insurgency counter-productive.
Edward de Bono